mardi 29 mai 2007

Brèves d'après campagne

Je ne vous ai, chers lecteurs, que peu écrit depuis l'avènement de Sarkozy Ier. Un peu de calme après la tempête, du temps pour reprendre ses esprits... et d'ailleurs, vous n'aurez vraissemblablement pas grand chose à attendre de moi d'ici les législatives.

Sous Sarkozy Ier, donc, c'est d'abord un calme relatif : pas encore grand chose à se mettre sous la dent, les arbitrages ne sont pas faits ; or, c'est là qu'on sera fixé sur la véritable nature du sarkozysme. L'énergie est au rendez-vous de la nouvelle présidence, qui réussit fort bien à imposer un nouveau style, du moins à la vendre à la gent médiatique : oui, notre Président fait son jogging, et notre premier ministre également, à ses côtés. Alors certes, Villepin courait le maraton, mais qu'importe ! toute nouvelle équipe a d'abord la tentation d'instruire le procès en ringardisation de sa devancière, ça ne mange pas de pain, et est budgétairement indolore.

Budgétairement indolore, les projets fiscaux de Nicolas Sarkozy ne le sont certes pas. Cette déductibilité des intérêts des emprunts immobiliers m'apparaît d'ailleurs comme une vaste fumisterie, au mieux sans aucun effet sur la croissance, au pire susceptible d'encourager artificiellement la hausse des prix de l'immobilier alors qu'une baisse aurait été salutaire, justement, à ceux qui ne sont pas propriétaire. Et quelle lisibilité accrue pour la feuille d'imposition : que les fiscalistes se rassurent, ils ne vont pas manquer de travail. Sérieusement, l'un des maux dont souffre l'impôt en France est la multiplication des niches fiscales, ainsi que du manque d'évaluation des résultats des divers allègements de charges successifs : les économistes prônent la mise en palce d'impôts à faible taux mais à assiette élargie... visiblement, on ne se dirige pas dans ce sens. Et quant à l'objectif de réduction de la dette, il passe au second plan : que l'on se laisse des marges de manoeuvre budgétaire pour relancer la croissance, voilà qui devrait ravir les keynésiens, mais la stratégie est risquée : nous serions déjà à la frontière d'efficacité des politiques keynésienne, et la réduction de la dette un impératif maintenant largement reconnu.

L'ouverture n'a, de fait, aucun sens politique : on s'ouvre aux hommes, pas aux idées, et la majroité est bien sarkozyste. Le débauchage de Kouchner, de Jouyet, et de Martin Hirsch pourra faire regretter à la gauche de n'avoir pas su mieux les utiliser, il renvoit en tout cas le PS à ses propres turpitudes et rend, définitivement, hors d'usage le Tout Sauf Sarko. Après, le fait que Nicolas Sarkozy ait hésité entre Védrine et Kouchner est par contre une très mauvaise nouvelle, tant les deux hommes, certes socialistes, ont des conceptions radicalement opposées en matière de politique étrangère : une realpolitik sobre fondée sur la nation et le refus de se laisser embarquer dans les formules conceptuellement creuses du « nouvel ordre mondial », le droit d'ingérence formalisé chez Kouchner, apôtre de la société civile contre les Etats. Ce qui prouve bien que c'est la manoeuvre tactique qui est ici privilégiée : elle est belle, mais ça ne fait pas une politique.

Quant au PS, on y reviendra, je pense, longuement à partir de juin, mais c'est peu dire qu'il est dans un état pitoyable : la défaite, sans être une déroute, est sévère ; le parti et la candidate y ont, chacun à leur mesure, contribué, celui-ci davantage que celle-là... une Ségolène Royal, qui, d'ailleurs, est en train de réussir un invraissemblable pari, celui de réécrire l'histoire. A peine battue, elle transformait sa défaite en promesse, oubliait qu'une majorité n'avait pas voté pour elle pour ne retenir que le « formidable élan », sur lequel elle espère capitaliser. Après tout, les plus belles histoires ne sont-elles pas fondées sur des mythes ? Là encore, comme chez Sarko, la manoeuvre est habile, chapeau... mais ça ne fait pas une ligne politique. Sarko, Ségo, même combat, la forme avant le fond ? Je n'ai rien dit de tel, notez bien !

Le PS, d'ailleurs, ne sera probablement pas laminé lors des législative, mais nous promet quand même des déchirements épiques pour l'après 17 juin. DSK a tiré trop tôt, et le statut de sainte de la candidate défaite, qui doit l'agacer terriblement, rend malaisée une prise de pouvoir de sa part. Et pourtant, plus que jamais, la logique politique voudrait un ticket DSK-Royal pour le PS. Tout ça s'annonce passionant.
J'ai hâte.

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